The 2016 Election Analysis: The 538 vs President Obama

Trump was able to win, in large part, because he won over a lot of northern white voters without a college degree — in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, for example. Many of these voters had cast ballots for Obama twice. Trump’s more populist message likely helped him outperform recent GOP nominees with these voters.538 Harry Enten

Globalization, combined with technology, combined with social media and constant information, have disrupted people’s lives, sometimes in very concrete ways a manufacturing plant closes and suddenly an entire town no longer has what was the primary source of employment -- but also psychologically.  People are less certain of their national identities or their place in the world. And there is no doubt that that has produced populist movements, both from the left and the right, in many countries in Europe.  When you see a Donald Trump and a Bernie Sanders -- very unconventional candidates -- have considerable success, then obviously there's something there that's being tapped into.President Obama