Player Value, Distribution and Risk

Players are acquired based on what teams expect them to do going forward.  Each player has a projection, but their true talent isn’t known and they’ll fall somewhere within a distribution, which comes with risk. 

Neal Huntington has been risk averse in his tenure as the Pittsburgh Pirates general manager.  He’s rarely traded big time prospects, with the move for Chris Archer being uncharacteristic, and he’s not been able to reach the finish line in other big names such as Jon Lester, David Price, or Jose Quintana.

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