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"Political science tells us that campaigns are about driving elections towards or away from a natural outcome. When modelers make models, they are trying to predict a ‘natural’ endpoint. There is always the possibility of biasing your actual calculation. Adding in assumptions like fundamentals could be right and could be wrong, but what they represent is basically a hypothesis about where the race ought to be. Making a model like that is a good political science experiment, but we should be clear that we are adding assumptions on top of the polls."Dr Sam Wang
"That model is wrong(Dr Wang's) — not necessarily because it shows Democrats ahead (ours barely shows any Republican advantage), but because it substantially underestimates the uncertainty associated with polling averages and thereby overestimates the win probabilities for candidates with small leads in the polls. This is because instead of estimating the uncertainty empirically — that is, by looking at how accurate polls or polling averages have been in the past — Wang makes several assumptions about how polls behave that don’t check out against the data." Nate Silver
"Political science is Not a science"former President Nixon
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Adam Robinson @adrobins at Lunch with DriveThruHR @DriveThruHR with @bryanwempen (Emeritus), @williamtincup & @thehrbuddy
DriveThruHR was designed to be a captivating and easy-to-digest lunch discourse that covers topics relevant to HR professionals. Each 30-minute episode features a guest speaker who shares her or his knowledge and experience in human resources. Our hosts and special guest cover a wealth of topics, including HR Technology, Recruiting, Talent Management, Leadership, Organizational Culture and Strategic HR, every day at 12:00 pm Central Time. The radio program is hosted by @bryanwempen (Emeritus), @williamtincup and @thehrbuddy The #1 HR show, with amazing HR conversations and follow us on the twitters at @drivethruhr and #dthr.
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The Rory T Edwards show with Sheila Robinson will elevate your attitude to increase your altitude, through the process of communication, wisdom, vision, experience, structures & actions which will empower you to take responsibility for the outcomes of your most precision possession, YOU !!
ITS TIME FOR YOUR FIX!!!
Donna Walker of The Bigg Chat, along with Romay of STEEL Magazine talks with World Reknown Dancer and Entertainer, Nate Moran about his success as a dancer and his struggles to get there from being once homeless.
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Her resume includes Days of Our Lives, King of the Nerds, CSI and so much more. Host Cyrus Webb welcomes actress and model Mindy Robinson to Conversations LIVE to discuss her success in front of the camera and the positive attitude that has made her a force to be reckoned with.
Tonight on The Gist of Freedom www.BlackHistoryUniversity.com, we'll talk with Jamel Robinson, founder of the Jamel Robinson Child Welfare Reform Initiative!
1837-1915 Amanda Berry Smith devoted her life to the ministry of the African Methodist Episcopal (AME) Church. Her most noted achievement is the opening of the first orphanage for black children in Illinois.
In 1899, the orphanage opened its doors to homeless African American girls. The 12-room brick house that served as the orphanage was the first of its kind in Illinois.
The community at large was receptive to Smith’s evangelical message and supported the presence of the orphanage. By 1910, the building housed 33 children, up from 12 in 1900
In Harvey, Illinois, a suburb founded by temperance groups south of Chicago, Smith took up the duties of the national representative for the WCTU, and wrote her life’s story. An Autobiography: The Story of the Lord’s Dealings with Mrs. Amanda Smith, the Colored Evangelist was published in 1893. Through book sales, donations, and lecturing fees, she began to raise money for a new cause: an orphanage for black children. She founded and distributed a small newspaper, The Helper, in order to generate publicity and income for the orphanage and other worthy charities
In New York City, there are nearly 14,000 children in foster care, with almost 6,000 new youth entering the system every year. Of those youth, approximately 1/3 are between the ages of 13-19, and less than 20% expect to be adopted. That equates to 1,100 youth aging out of the foster care system in New York each year without a permanent home, family or support network.
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