Triple Crowner  

If I was given the opportunity to plan a perfect weekend of sporting events, this weekend in Boston sports would be eerily similar to my plans. Playoff hockey, a title fight and the gem of them all – the Kentucky Derby – would all be put in those plans somewhere. Of all the events this weekend, my anticipation on the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby has reached its tipping point, and I just want the race to start already!

Of course before you know it, the race is over, but not without bringing my excitement level to an all-time high. It is, after all, the two most exciting minutes in sports, and this year will certainly not disappoint.

While I have to admit I am very disappointed my two early Derby favorites, Midshipman and Quality Road, are both off the Triple Crown trail, this weekend’s race will still be very competitive. It just shows how hard it is to make that early Derby pick back in January. The challenge is not only to pick a winning horse, but then to also hope the horse stays healthy.

Quality Road was so impressive in the Florida Derby defeating Dunkirk, and he was my favorite heading into this weekend. Unfortunately, he suffered cracks in two separate hooves and had to be taken out of contention. He suffered one crack after the Florida Derby and even after that injury there was still hope he would run, but once he suffered the second injury he was out of the running. It is certainly for the better as the sport cannot afford another catastrophic injury like Eight Belles and Barbaro on the sport’s biggest stage, especially after all the measures they have set up over the last year to prevent injury.

So with my two early Derby hopefuls out, my other somewhat-early pick in the Derby was I Want Revenge, winner of the Gotham Stakes and the Wood Memorial. He has been installed as the morning line favorite and will be racing from unlucky “13.” I Want Revenge began the year running out West on the polytrack, then switched to the dirt in the Gotham and romped. The Wood was more impressive because he had a lousy start and got stuck in traffic but was still able to get to the finish line first. His jockey will be 19-year-old Joe Talamo, who is racing in his first Derby. It may have some handicappers thinking twice, since this race is so difficult to bet on a rookie jockey, but I don’t see this as being a concern, especially after their performance in the Wood. I think he will be sitting just off the lead and will have a nice closing kick to get into the money. Does he have enough to win? I certainly think he can.

The other very attractive pick is the 6, Friesan Fire. He gets a nice draw and is coming off a sweep of the major stakes races at Fair Grounds. He has enough early speed to avoid the traffic in the race and also posted a bullet workout on April 27, the fastest of those that worked out that day. I am a little concerned with his layoff. His last race was March 14 and in the past, when he has had over 30 days between races, he has not performed as well.

Coming from the West Coast is Pioneer of the Nile, winner of four straight on the polytrack and riding for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. I am hesitant because he has not raced on the dirt and has not posted a Beyer over 100 but he has certainly ruled out West. I am looking elsewhere.

Papa Clem will be racing from post 7 and has been installed at 20/1 on the morning line. He was racing out West and actually finished second to Pioneer of the Nile in the Rebel Lewis. He then finished second on the slop in the Louisiana Derby to Friesan Fire and then won the Arkansas Derby. Of the horses with longer odds, he is my pick to make some noise, although I don’t see the 20/1 odds holding up.

The wild card in the race is Dunkirk. He is running for Todd Pletcher who is 0 for 21 in the Derby. Dunkirk was purchased for 3.9 million dollars but has only run in a maiden, allowance and the Florida Derby. In the Florida Derby he finished second to Quality Road. His lack of experience scares me away from this bet, but if he truly is the superstar that he was purchased for, I wouldn’t be surprised if he fires a huge race and takes it home. With his odds I am also looking elsewhere.

Saeed Bin Suroor has entered two horses that have been running in Dubai, Regal Ransom and Desert Party. I had a good feeling about Desert Party until he drew the 19th post, but then again Big Brown won the race last year in the 20 spot. Regal Ransom will be showing speed early and is coming off an upset of Desert Party. The distance will be a test for him but with his long odds, be sure to throw him in some of your exotics.

Picking the Derby is such a difficult thing to do but the excitement does not get any greater when your choice is coming down the stretch. Best of luck to all!

I will change my mind many times prior to Saturday’s race, but I am cheering for I Want Revenge. I if I had to make my picks right now I am going with the trifecta key 13 over the 6, 7, 10, 16. Trifecta box 6, 7, 13. Papa Clem and Freisan Fire are who I am predicting will follow up I Want Revenge.