Triple Crowner  

If I was given the opportunity to plan a perfect weekend of sporting events, this weekend in Boston sports would be eerily similar to my plans. Playoff hockey, a title fight and the gem of them all – the Kentucky Derby – would all be put in those plans somewhere. Of all the events this weekend, my anticipation on the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby has reached its tipping point, and I just want the race to start already!

Of course before you know it, the race is over, but not without bringing my excitement level to an all-time high. It is, after all, the two most exciting minutes in sports, and this year will certainly not disappoint.

While I have to admit I am very disappointed my two early Derby favorites, Midshipman and Quality Road, are both off the Triple Crown trail, this weekend’s race will still be very competitive. It just shows how hard it is to make that early Derby pick back in January. The challenge is not only to pick a winning horse, but then to also hope the horse stays healthy.

Quality Road was so impressive in the Florida Derby defeating Dunkirk, and he was my favorite heading into this weekend. Unfortunately, he suffered cracks in two separate hooves and had to be taken out of contention. He suffered one crack after the Florida Derby and even after that injury there was still hope he would run, but once he suffered the second injury he was out of the running. It is certainly for the better as the sport cannot afford another catastrophic injury like Eight Belles and Barbaro on the sport’s biggest stage, especially after all the measures they have set up over the last year to prevent injury.

So with my two early Derby hopefuls out, my other somewhat-early pick in the Derby was I Want Revenge, winner of the Gotham Stakes and the Wood Memorial. He has been installed as the morning line favorite and will be racing from unlucky “13.” I Want Revenge began the year running out West on the polytrack, then switched to the dirt in the Gotham and romped. The Wood was more impressive because he had a lousy start and got stuck in traffic but was still able to get to the finish line first. His jockey will be 19-year-old Joe Talamo, who is racing in his first Derby. It may have some handicappers thinking twice, since this race is so difficult to bet on a rookie jockey, but I don’t see this as being a concern, especially after their performance in the Wood. I think he will be sitting just off the lead and will have a nice closing kick to get into the money. Does he have enough to win? I certainly think he can.

The other very attractive pick is the 6, Friesan Fire. He gets a nice draw and is coming off a sweep of the major stakes races at Fair Grounds. He has enough early speed to avoid the traffic in the race and also posted a bullet workout on April 27, the fastest of those that worked out that day. I am a little concerned with his layoff. His last race was March 14 and in the past, when he has had over 30 days between races, he has not performed as well.

Coming from the West Coast is Pioneer of the Nile, winner of four straight on the polytrack and riding for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. I am hesitant because he has not raced on the dirt and has not posted a Beyer over 100 but he has certainly ruled out West. I am looking elsewhere.

Papa Clem will be racing from post 7 and has been installed at 20/1 on the morning line. He was racing out West and actually finished second to Pioneer of the Nile in the Rebel Lewis. He then finished second on the slop in the Louisiana Derby to Friesan Fire and then won the Arkansas Derby. Of the horses with longer odds, he is my pick to make some noise, although I don’t see the 20/1 odds holding up.

The wild card in the race is Dunkirk. He is running for Todd Pletcher who is 0 for 21 in the Derby. Dunkirk was purchased for 3.9 million dollars but has only run in a maiden, allowance and the Florida Derby. In the Florida Derby he finished second to Quality Road. His lack of experience scares me away from this bet, but if he truly is the superstar that he was purchased for, I wouldn’t be surprised if he fires a huge race and takes it home. With his odds I am also looking elsewhere.

Saeed Bin Suroor has entered two horses that have been running in Dubai, Regal Ransom and Desert Party. I had a good feeling about Desert Party until he drew the 19th post, but then again Big Brown won the race last year in the 20 spot. Regal Ransom will be showing speed early and is coming off an upset of Desert Party. The distance will be a test for him but with his long odds, be sure to throw him in some of your exotics.

Picking the Derby is such a difficult thing to do but the excitement does not get any greater when your choice is coming down the stretch. Best of luck to all!

I will change my mind many times prior to Saturday’s race, but I am cheering for I Want Revenge. I if I had to make my picks right now I am going with the trifecta key 13 over the 6, 7, 10, 16. Trifecta box 6, 7, 13. Papa Clem and Freisan Fire are who I am predicting will follow up I Want Revenge.

            The headlines around horse racing this week termed it a “stunning upset” as early Derby favorite Old Fashioned was upset by 56-1 long shot Win Willy, but here at the Starting Gate, I wasn’t as surprised as the headlines were. I wrote a few weeks ago after his race in the Southwest Stakes that he didn’t impress me enough to be the favorite in the run for the roses so watching him get caught in the stretch in this race didn’t surprise me. Just like in the Southwest he raced against Silver City and while it looked like Silver City was the reason he struggled in the Southwest, Silver City might have tired him out giving Win Willy the opportunity to win this one. So as the saying goes “What have you done for me lately,” look for Old Fashioned to slip in the next round of early Derby pool betting, and look for his stable mate Friesan Fire to rise to the top. I have to give ace handicapper Matt C. credit on this one as he told me to watch out for this horse two months ago. He was right on the money with this horse and I have to agree that he seems to be the favorite right now. Friesan Fire was very impressive in the Louisana Derby making it a sweep in the three major stakes races at Fairgrounds this year. He won this race on a sloppy track and showed some great tactical speed stalking the pace and then pouncing to put the competition away in a race that was considered to be wide open.

This weekend keep your eyes on the Lanes End Stakes at Turfway where West Side Bernie will be facing off against Bittel Road. These two horses are the class of the race that features a field of 12. Bittel Road has faced tough company in California including being beat in his last two races by Pioneerof the Nile, a leading contender for the Derby. Bittel road is trained by Todd Pletcher and will have Garret Gomez as the jockey. West Side Bernie won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile last year at Turfway and drew the four post in this one. He has posted three consecutive races of over 100 Beyers and will be coming off the pace. I am taking Bittel Road over West Side Bernie though. I am looking to the outside in this race as well with the 12 horse, Proceed Bee. This horse closed very nicely in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes in February and I think he will be closing along with the favorites. I am putting it in writing here that I think this horse has the capability to pull off the upset. It is somewhat of a gut feeling, especially considering he hasn't posted a beyer above 87, but at 12-1, I am putting some money on him across the board along with him in my exotics.

            As I mentioned earlier, Matt C. was right on with Friesan Fire and with the great success of my blog here on Nesn.com and his ace handicapping, we are proud to announce that we will be launching a live radio broadcast called Track Talk over the internet beginning next Friday night at 11pm. I invite anyone to join in the conversation as we will be discussing what has happened on the Derby trail so far, and be handicapping the Florida Derby, a race won last year by Big Brown. You can listen live and call in from the internet or over the phone. We would love to hear your thoughts on the races. Check out our show page here http://www.blogtalkradio.com/Triple-Crowner.

It was an interesting day at the races Saturday with Stardom Bound just barely squeaking out a win at the wire in the Santa Anita Oaks, and I Want Revenge dominating in his dirt debut in the Grade III Gotham Stakes. Nicanor, Barbaro’s full brother, didn’t get into the win column in his second race, but showed improvement in grabbing second place at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Michael Matz said experience was the factor in Nicanor not holding on for first but with a little more experience, Nicanor will be a good horse.

I thought Stardom Bound was going to have an easier time in the Oaks than she did and it leaves some speculation as to whether or not she can compete with the boys. I still think she can and her not-so-dominating performance can be chalked up to the fact that she had to go very wide and, according to jockey Mike Smith, she was “playing around a little bit” in the stretch.

I thought Stardom Bound’s win was going to look like I Want Revenge’s win in the Gotham where he set a stakes record for the 1 1/16 distance and won by more than eight lengths. You might recognize the jockey’s name, as it was Joe Talamo, one of the feature riders in the television series “Jockeys” on Animal Planet. It’s a great look at jockeys behind the scenes and gives you a different perspective of what they go through on a day-to-day basis.  I’ll have to admit Talamo was rubbing me the wrong way on the show because it seems like he hasn’t been in the sport long enough to pull some of the stuff he was pulling, but he has been bringing in the winners and backing up his attitude.

The win was another big one for Talamo and an impressive one at that. I was even more impressed in the post race stories which said that Talamo actually suggested the horse would be better suited on dirt rather than synthetics and he was certainly right. Many handicappers threw Colonel John out of the Derby last year because he was coming across the country from poly to dirt, but he proved them wrong with his win in the Travers. (By the way, Colonel John was scratched from the Santa Anita Handicap, which was won by Einstein.) It was great to see I Want Revenge perform on the dirt prior to the Derby and I have moved him up onto my derby radar. I did look back on the last two Gotham winners and they haven’t had much success in the Derby (not that it may mean anything but we handicappers are always looking for that extra angle). Last year, the Gotham was won by Visionaire who came in 12th in the Derby, and the year before it was won by Cowtown Cat, who finished last in the Derby that year. Like I said, that does not necessarily mean anything.

Finally, Nicanor, who came in 10th in his debut race, led the way at Gulfstream today but was caught at the beginning of the stretch by Custom for Carlos. He began to come back but just couldn’t get to the wire first. Barbaro was such a special horse and there will always be that “What If he didn’t get hurt in the Preakness?” question, so racing fans are yearning to see if Nicanor can also be that special and holding out hope that he will be. So far it doesn’t look like he will be; of course those are big shoes to fill. Barbaro showed just how strong he was when he burst through the gate that day in Baltimore and I really felt that had he not gotten hurt, he would have been a serious contender in the Belmont to take the Triple Crown (I know he would have won the Preakness!).