The StatMan  

In case you missed it, here are the notes from last week's show (#22).  If you want to hear the rest, you can also listen to the podcast from this show.  Better yet, you can join us and listen live next Sunday night, September 6th, at 8pm ET.  For all of the latest schedules, podcasts, and blog entries, visit http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan.  Also, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/gstatman.

Show open
* Why have preseason football games received so much more coverage in the last couple of years?  I remember when games were shown on tape delay after the late news.

* New rule wrinkles in your fantasy football leagues you might want to talk about in your league’s Summer Meetings: IDPs and auction drafts

Topic 1: Baseball
Yankees
* The Joba Rules have changed again.  He was pitching six times for the rest of the regular season, but he is now going to take the ball every five days.  In August, he did not allow less than four earned runs in any start and, in those four starts, he was 1-2, 8.55 ERA (19 ER in 20 IP, 2.10 WHIP).  Is it the Joba Rules are is Joba just tired?  Regardless, it is a breath of fresh air to throw away the Joba Rules.

* Today’s pitchers have been coddled, with rules of thumb on pitches in an inning, pitches in a game, and innings in a season.  The big question is: “Are the pitchers better than they were before?”  If not, maybe the popular philosophy is all wrong.

Red Sox
* Tim Wakefield is back and the Sox need him.  He needs to be the #3 starter behind Josh Beckett, who has suddenly fallen on hard times, and Jon Lester, who is recently on a roll and among the league leaders in strikeouts.  He returned on Wednesday night and put in an excellent performance, allowing a run on six hits in seven innings.

* Billy Wagner was claimed off waivers from the Mets and traded Chris Carter and a player to be named.  TheYankees put in a claim for Carter and they probably had no intention of trading for him.  GM Brian Cashman probably did this to throw a wrench into things.  I do not think Cashman is worried about retribution from two teams with whom he never trades.

Phillies
* Weekends in August against the NL East have gone pretty well for the Phillies as they are comfortably in front in the NL East. The Phillies went 7-6 against Florida, Atlanta, and the Mets.

* Problems continue at the back of the Phillies bullpen, blowing two saves against Pittsburgh during the week.  Brad Lidge blew a save and lost the game as Pirate OF Andrew McCutchen hit a walk-off three-run shot after the Phillies took a lead in the top of the 10th.  The next night, Ryan Madson blew a lead in the ninth before Ryan Howard hit a three-run blast to give Madson a vulture win.  If Lidge continues to falter, do not look at Madson, who has been worse.

Mets
* The injuries continue, as Johan Santana was shut down for the season with bone chips in his elbow, J.J. Putz’s hopes of coming back this year from injury stopped in Brooklyn, and Oliver Perez was also shut down for the season with knee problems.

* The rotation in Buffalo, I mean, Queens is: Mike Pelfrey, Tim Redding, Bobby Parnell, Nelson Figueroa, and Pat Misch.

Around the League
* Pitching coach and miracle worker Dave Duncan may have done it again with Red Sox cast-off John Smoltz.  Two strong starts for Smoltz in his first two turns with the Cardinals and he could seal a nice playoff rotation with Adam Wainwright and a rehabilitated Chris Carpenter.

* Texas has handled the AL East very well recently, going 5-4 in three-game sets against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tampa.  The more I see Texas play, the more I feel the Rangers are for real.  You cannot count Texas out of the division in the AL West even though the Rangers are 4-1/2 games behind the Angels, who just acquired Scott Kazmir to give them six starters for five spots.

* The White Sox are going through the AL East wringer and they are not faring nearly as well, losing three of four to the Red Sox and dropping the first two against the Yankees (Ed. Note: The White Sox were swept by the Yankees after Sunday’s loss.)

* The Twins are climbing back and the AL Central has not been decided either.  The Tigers are in front by 4-1/2 games, but the Tigers, Twins, and White Sox will all play each other six times the rest of the way.  If the White Sox can hold it together, this might be a great three-team race to follow.  The Twins and White Sox will face off this coming week.

Topic 2: 2009 NFL Preview - NFC East and AFC East
AFC East
Buffalo
* Big Question: How long will it take for T.O. to implode?
* Notable Comings and Goings:
  * Coming: WR Terrell Owens, DT Marcus Stroud, RB Dominic Rhodes, DE Aaron Maybin (R)
  * Going: QB J.P. Losman, TE Robert Royal, LB Angelo Crowell, CB Jabari Greer
* 2008 record/2009 projection (change): 7-9/6-10 (-1)
* Analysis: The Bills are going for it this year, signing free agent Owens and believing QB Trent Edwards is the guy to throw the ball to T.O.  Do you believe he is the guy? I certainly don’t.  I think the suspension or RB Marshawn Lynch will not hurt the team that much, but Edwards-to-Owens will do more harm off the field (read: Terrell being Terrell) than help on the field.

Miami
* Big Question: Will the Wildcat offense continue to mesmerize?
* Notable Comings and Goings:
  * Coming: SS Gibril Wilson, DE Jason Taylor, CB Vontae Davis (R), CB Sean Smith (R)
  * Going: DL Vonnie Holliday, S Renaldo Hill, WR Earnest Wilford, QB John Beck
* 2008 record/2009 projection (change): 11-5/6-10 (-5)
* Analysis: The most precipitous drop-off from last season’s record belong to these Dolphins. The Wildcat formation is a fad that I think will be found out this season.  You should not see other teams taken by surprise when Ronnie Brown takes the direct snap.  Without the Wildcat, the Dolphins will be closer to the 2007 edition than it will to the 2008 edition.  Even if the Dolphins have success with the Wildcat, I do not see them beyond 9-7.

New England
* Big Question: Will we see the Brady of old?
* Notable Comings and Goings:
  * Coming: WR Joey Galloway, RB Fred Taylor, CB Shawn Springs, TE Chris Baker, TE Alex Smith, WR Greg Lewis
  * Going: LB Mike Vrabel, SS Rodney Harrison, DB Ellis Hobbs, LB Junior Seau, LB Larry Izzo, WR Jabar Gaffney, LS Lonnie Paxton
* 2008 record/2009 projection (change): 11-5/13-3 (+2)
* Analysis: The Pats added some pieces and got rid of a lot of other pieces.  The whole will be greater than the sum of their parts, as it normally is with Belichick-led Patriots teams.  Vrabel and Paxton will be missed. But, you know there is some fourth-string LB or DB just waiting to step into the breach. The prediction here is that Brady will play as though he never got hurt last season and the Pats will be even better.

NY Jets
* Big Question: Will the defense be good enough to carry a rookie quarterback?
* Notable Comings and Goings:
  * Coming: QB Mark Sanchez (R), LB Bart Scott, S Jim Leonhard, RB Shonn Greene, CB Lito Sheppard, HC Rex Ryan
  * Going: QB Brett Favre, WR Laveranues Coles, CB Abram Elam, LB Eric Barton, TE Chris Baker, HC Eric Mangini
* 2008 record/2009 projection (change): 9-7/6-10 (-3)
* Analysis: The Jets take a step back in the season standings, but a step forward for the franchise, if that is even possible.  The pieces will be there for a rapid rise in 2010, but they have a tough schedule, a rookie quarterback, and new sheriffs in town on defense.  It will take a while to jell, and this will be a disappointing, but formative, year for the Jets. If the defense becomes as violent as Coach Ryan wants and Sanchez shows consistent poise and results, they could go 8-8.

Projected AFC East 2009 Standings
1. New England 13-3
2. Miami 6-10
3. Buffalo 6-10
4. N.Y. Jets 6-10

NFC East
Dallas
* Big Question: What will generate more news: Tony Romo’s personal life or the gaudy new stadium?
* Notable Comings and Goings:
  * Coming: LB Keith Brooking, DE Igor Olshansky, QB Jon Kitna, LB Matt Stewart
  * Going: DE Chris Canty, WR Terrell Owens, DT Tank Johnson, LB Zach Thomas, LB Kevin Burnett
* 2008 record/2009 projection (change): 9-7/10-6 (+1)
* Analysis: The loss of Owens and the loss of Romo’s ex-girlfriend will be addition by subtraction. Brooking will be a good signing and the Cowboys will christen their new stadium with a solid 10-6 season. But, Dallas’s playoff chances will be hurt by a 3-3 division record and 6-6 conference record. For the record, the gaudy new stadium will make the most news.

NY Giants
* Big Question: How will fans reach to Eli Manning’s big-money contract and young receiving corps?
* Notable Comings and Goings:
  * Coming: DE Chris Canty, LB Michael Boley, WR Hakeem Nicks (R), S C.C. Brown, WR Ramses Barden (R)
  * Going: RB Derrick Ward, WR Plaxico Burress, WR Amani Toomer, DE Ronaldo Wynn, SS James Butler, K John Carney
* 2008 record/2009 projection (change): 12-4/11-5 (-1)
* Analysis: Manning has the richest contract in football, but several passers will have better seasons this year.  Manning will be judged on wins and losses and he will do fine in New Jersey. The receiving corps is young and they do not have an established #1, but, top to bottom, the prediction is they will get the job done. Steve Smith and Dominik Hixon will have to step up and Sinorice Moss has to stop underachieving and I think two out of three will be solid.

Philadelphia
* Big Question: Will the Michael Vick experiment work?
* Notable Comings and Goings:
  * Coming: QB Michael Vick, WR Jeremy Maclin (R), DB Ellis Hobbs, G Stacy Andrews, T Jason Peters, RB LeSean McCoy (R)
  * Going: S Brian Dawkins, T Tra Thomas, G Jon Runyan, TE L.J. Smith, RB Correll Buckhalter, S Sean Considine, CB Lito Sheppard
* 2008 record/2009 projection (change): 9-6-1/10-6 (+0.5)
* Analysis: The Vick experiment is a little overblown because he will only be available for the last 11 games of the season. If Vick is on the field the same time as McNabb, they are one hit away from having one of them get hurt. If Vick is pressed into action because QB Donovan McNabb is out with injury or benched for poor play, the team is worse off. Vick can rely on his athleticism to get to a certain point, but McNabb gives the Eagles their best chance to win.

Washington
* Big Question: Can Jason Campbell ascend to the next level?
* Notable Comings and Goings:
  * Coming: DE Albert Haynesworth, DE Brian Orakpo (R), DE Ronaldo Wynn, G Derrick Dockery, P Hunter Smith
  * Going: CB Shawn Springs, DE Jason Taylor, WR James Thrash, G Pete Kendall, T Jason Fabini
* 2008 record/2009 projection (change): 8-8/8-8 (even)
* Analysis: Campbell has great ability, and WR Santana Moss and TE Chris Cooley are good receivers, but they had them last year. Campbell may be better, but not much better, the offensive line is weaker, and the supporting receivers are the same. The Redskins spent money for new defensive linemen, and drafted one, but they are susceptible deep and they play seven games against top-tier passing games (DAL, PHL, ATL, NO, SDG).

Projected NFC East 2009 Standings
1. N.Y. Giants 11-5
2. Philadelphia 10-6
3. Dallas 10-6
4. Washington 8-8