The StatMan  

Week 2 in the NFL is upon us and since the games are about to start, we'll put together the Week 2 Preview and Picks before we recap Week 1.  It's a scheduling conflict.  Anyone with a life outside of blogging will understand.

Week 2 Picks
(spreads courtesy of USA Today's Danny Sheridan)

Local Picks
* Philadelphia hosts New Orleans in a "pick 'em" game: NO (win/cover)
* New England is favored on the road at the Meadowlands against the Jets: NYJ (win outright)
* The Giants help the Dallas Cowboys open their new lavish building: NYG (win outright)

Big-Game Picks
* Baltimore-San Diego (SDG -3): BAL (win outright)
* Pittsburgh-Chicago (PIT -3): PIT (win and cover)
* Oakland-Kansas City (KCY -3): OAK (win outright)

Knockout Pool Pick - Round 1
Buffalo (over Tampa Bay, Buffalo is -5)

Game of the Week: New England at N.Y. Jets
Is a matchup of a recovering quarterback and a coach that still hates his former employer facing a new coach and a rookie quarterback?  It is when it is the Patriots and the Jets.  Sit back and enjoy this one.

Fantasy Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em
Start 'Em:
* Benjamin Watson (NE at NYJ) - Wes Welker is out and the Jets secondary will force Tom Brady to look for Watson in the flat
* Leon Washington (NYJ vs. NE) - Washington will one of Mark Sanchez's safety valves and the linebacker turnover for the Patriots will help Washington shine
* Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG at DAL) - Dallas showed they could not stop the run in Week 1 against Tampa Bay and Bradshaw will be the change-of-pace that will throw the 'Boys for a loop.

Sit 'Em:
* Kevin Smith (DET vs. MIN) - Remember the Vikings defense was what everyone talked about in Minnesota before Favre came to town.
* Dwayne Bowe (KCY vs. OAK) - Bowe has a tough schedule to start the season and the Raiders play the pass very well.
* Joseph Addai (IND at MIA) - Addai splits carries with rookie Donald Brown and he still has to find his stride this season.

We will analyze these picks on our next show (#25), as well as offer a recap on Week 2 action so far, this Sunday, September 20th, from 10-11pm.  Join us live on http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan.

On last week's show (#23), we went through our weekly preview package we will have every week.  We will pick all local games, offer three picks in what we feel are the toughest games on the schedule, give you our knockout pool pick of the week and the game of the week.  For your fantasy lineups, we will also give you some ideas as to who to start and who to bench.

Week 1 Picks
(spreads courtesy of Sporting News Today - http://today.sportingnews.com/)

Local Picks
* Philadelphia is the road favorite (1) at Carolina: CAR (win and cover)
* N.Y. Giants is the favorite (6.5) at home against Washington: NYG (win and cover)
* N.Y. Jets is a road dog (4.5) at Houston: NYJ (win and cover)
* New England favored by 10.5 points at home against Buffalo (Monday): NE (win), BUF (cover)

Big-Game Picks
* Tennessee-Pittsburgh (Thursday) (PIT -5): PIT (win and cover)
* Chicago-Green Bay (GBY -3.5): GBY (win), CHI (cover)
* Miami-Atlanta (ATL -4): MIA (win and cover)

Knockout Pool Pick - Round 1
Saints (over Lions, Saints are -13)

Game of the Week: Tennessee-Pittsburgh (Thursday)
Right off the bat, the best game of the week is the first game of the week.  It will be on NBC on Thursday night.  Great running backs seem to do well historically against Pittsburgh, but I am still going with Pittsburgh since they are at home and their defense is better overall.

Fantasy Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em
Start 'Em:
* Anthony Gonzalez/Pierre Garcon (IND vs. JAX) - Jacksonville has trouble in their secondary
* Reggie Bush (NO vs. DET) - Pierre Thomas will not be 100%
* Eddie Royal (DEN vs. CIN) - Brandon Marshall is not a happy camper

Sit 'Em:
* Mark Bradley/Bobby Engram (KCY vs. BAL) - Kansas City will throw, but Baltimore will shut them down
* Jamal Lewis (CLE vs. MIN) - His big-game ability is long gone and the Vikings defense is excellent
* Laurence Maroney/Fred Taylor (NE vs. BUF) - Brady will throw the ball all over the place in his return

We will analyze these picks on our next show (#24), as well as offer a recap on Week 1 action so far, this Sunday, September 13th, from 8-9pm.  Join us live on http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan.

Topic 1: Baseball

Red Sox
They are comfortably in front in the Wild Card as they took 2 of 3 from Tampa Bay and Texas.  Texas has injury and pitching issues.  Boston needs to get better before October.  Tim Wakefield had to have a cortisone shot in his back, Jon Lester left his start with a tight groin, but he is okay, and Josh Beckett is in a slump.  While the pitching is limping along, the pitchers they released, John Smoltz and Brad Penny were picked up by National League teams and they are pitching great for the Cardinals and Giants, respectively.

Phillies
The pitchers shined against the Giants in a surprisingly defensive series at Citizens Bank Park.  Cole Hamels was the Hamels of 2008 with his 1-0 win.  Pedro Martinez was the Pedro of 2005 with his 4-0 when he outdueled Giants ace Tim Lincecum.  J.A. Happ may have hit his rookie wall.  The bullpen needs some work, too, with Brad Lidge accumulating 10 blown saves in 38 chances and a 7.15 ERA, which are the worst for any closer in the majors. 

Mets
David Wright is back in the lineup.  His helmet wears him (see Wills Gillan's "The Big Apple" blog for a funny blog entry on that). The Mets could not play spoiler for the Rockies in Denver, as they lost 2 of 3 to the Rockies.  Carlos Beltran may be back Tuesday against Florida and John Maine might be back by the weekend at Philadelphia.  Beltran has been out since June 21st, when the Mets were 2 games back of first place (Philadelphia was 36-31, New York was 34-33) and 2-1/2 behind the Giants for the Wild Card.

Yankees
A.J. Burnett has hit a slump and he needs to figure it out before October.  The home/road home run splits for the team normally skews more towards friendly Yankee Stadium, but not for Nick Swisher, who has 24 homers, but only three round-trippers were at home.

Around the League
* In the NL Wild Card race, Colorado has been good at home lately, finishing a sweep on Arizona this weekend, and received clutch homers by Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith.  San Francisco has brought their pitching with them, with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Barry Zito acting like a big three that can match up with anyone.  San Francisco missed out on a sweep at Milwaukee with a 2-1 Brewers win on Sunday.

* Fighting for a chance at the postseason, Atlanta and Florida faced each other.  Florida won 2 of 3 against Atlanta, who is fading.  For Florida, Dan Uggla challenged Hanley Ramirez in a public forum to reporters and Ramirez took exception.  But, Ramirez stayed in lineup even though he was banged up and has seemed more determined.

* Chicago and Minnesota are trying to make some noise behind Detroit in the AL Central.  Chicago is still hanging on despite waving the white flag at the postseason roster deadline on August 31st, trading away Jim Thome to the Dodgers and Jose Contreras to the Rockies.  Minnesota lost a heartbreaker to Cleveland, which may be one of the nails in the coffin for their postseason hopes.  The loss to Cleveland on Sunday, 3-1, put them 7 games back of Detroit with 7 remaining against the Tigers.  The Twins at .500 and need some help fast.

Topic 2: Football

Playoff Predictions
AFC: #1 New England (East winner - 13-3), #2 Pittsburgh (North winner - 13-3), #3 Indianapolis (South winner - 13-3), #4 San Diego (West winner - 11-5), #5 Tennessee (Wild Card - 12-4), Baltimore (Wild Card - 10-6)
NFC: #1 Minnesota (North winner - 11-5), #2 New York Giants (East winner - 11-5), #3 Atlanta (South winner - 9-7), #4 Arizona (West winner - 9-7), #5 Green Bay (Wild Card winner - 10-6), #6 Philadelphia (Wild Card winner - 10-6)

Playoff Games (winners in parentheses)
Wild Card Weekend: Baltimore at Indianapolis (Indianapolis), Tennessee at San Diego (Tennessee), Philadelphia at Atlanta (Atlanta), Green Bay at Arizona (Arizona)
Divisional Championship Weekend: Tennessee at New England (Tennessee), Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (Indianapolis), Arizona at Minnesota (Arizona), Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (N.Y. Giants)
Conference Championship Weekend: Tennessee at Indianapolis (Indianapolis), Arizona at N.Y. Giants (N.Y. Giants)
Super Bowl XLIV: Indianapolis vs. N.Y. Giants (Indianapolis)
* My prediction is it will be brother versus brother in the Super Bowl.  Both Mannings have a ring, but I am predicting an Indianapolis-NY Giants Super Bowl with the Colts winning the game.

Week 1 Quick Hits
Giants
Who will step up in the receiving corps?  My guess is Steve Smith, who had the good playoff run two seasons ago when the Giants won it all, with Hakeem Nicks a close second.  I am worried about Dominik Hixon, who did not take the ball and run with it when Burress was dropped by the team, Sinorice Moss and Mario Manningham have not shown much at all, and you cannot expect much from Ramses Barden.

Jets
Quarterback Mark Sanchez looks confident and ready to start in his first season in the NFL.  Some of it is bravado, echoing his head coach, but some of it is actual talent showing through.  I still think the fruits of the Jets 2009 labor will be reaped in 2010, not this year.  They have the 7th toughest schedule according to SI.

Patriots
Quarterback Tom Brady healthy enough to start and the Pats confident enough to only keep one backup in Brian Hoyer, who won in his start on Thursday against the Giants.  BenJarvis Green-Ellis and injured Sammy Morris both made the final cut and Green-Ellis’s 125-yard effort on Thursday guaranteed a spot on the team.

Eagles
Quarterback Michael Vick’s suspension is only 2 games and he has done everything asked of him so far.  The Eagles are planning a PR campaign to help Vick try to win over some of the people on the fence about the animal cruelty he committed and allowed to happen.  Vick gives the Eagles 4 QBs, so A.J. Feeley will most likely be the one traded, drawing possible interest from the Patriots.

Around the League
* 3 coordinators fired (KCY, TBY, BUF) for different reasons.  In Kansas City, Chan Gailey did not get the message and Todd Haley just came from being the offensive coordinator in Arizona.  In Tampa, rookie coach Raheem Morris probably did not think of it as an option until he saw rookie coach Haley do it.  In Buffalo, Dick Jauron’s job is on the line this year and it is already not looking good.  If he made the change at mid-year, the season would have been lost and a lost season costs Jauron his job, so he had to make the change now.

Listen to last week's show (#23) for the Week 1 Preview, but look for it on this blog shortly.

Our next show (#24) is tonight, Sunday, September 13th.  Join us at 8pm Eastern as we recap how Week 1 has gone so far, as well as talk baseball and start our three-part NHL preview.  Tune in to http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan.

We ran out of time on our last show (#23) to present our 2009 Fantasy Football preview. Our league draft is scheduled for the night before the season begins on Thursday. If you have not had your draft yet, I have listed my top 10 fantasy players at each position, along with a couple of sleepers who I think will be worth the gamble of drafting them this season. 

For these picks, I am applying a fantasy scoring system with extra rewards for longer touchdowns, yardage, and versatility, such as rushing touchdowns for quarterbacks and receiving touchdowns for running backs.  Kickers score extra points for longer field goals.  Defense and special teams include sacks, interceptions, and fumble recoveries for the defense and returns for touchdowns by both the defense and special teams.

Even if you have already had your draft, you can take a look to see if you have any of these sleepers or how many players in the top 10 per position you have on your team.

TOP 10
QUARTERBACK
1. Drew Brees NO
2. Tom Brady NE
3. Peyton Manning IND
4. Philip Rivers SDG
5. Aaron Rodgers GBY
6. Donovan McNabb PHL
7. Matt Ryan ATL
8. Kurt Warner ARZ
9. Jay Cutler CHI
10. Tony Romo DAL

RUNNING BACK
1. Adrian Peterson MIN
2. Michael Turner ATL
3. LaDainian Tomlinson SDG
4. Matt Forte CHI
5. DeAngelo Williams CAR
6. Maurice Jones-Drew JAX
7. Chris Johnson TEN
8. Steven Jackson STL
9. Brandon Jacobs NYG
10. Brian Westbrook PHL

WIDE RECEIVER
1. Larry Fitzgerald ARZ
2. Andre Johnson HOU
3. Calvin Johnson DET
4. Greg Jennings GBY
5. Randy Moss NE
6. Steve Smith CAR
7. Terrell Owens BUF
8. Reggie Wayne IND
9. Roddy White ATL
10. Anquan Boldin ARZ

TIGHT END
1. Jason Witten DAL
2. Dallas Clark IND
3. Chris Cooley WSH
4. Antonio Gates SDG
5. Tony Gonzalez ATL
6. John Carlson SEA
7. Visanthe Shiancoe MIN
8. Owen Daniels HOU
9. Greg Olsen CHI
10. Kellen Winslow TBY

KICKER
1. Stephen Gostkowski NE
2. Jason Elam ATL
3. Rob Bironas TEN
4. Ryan Longwell MIN
5. Mason Crosby GBY
6. David Akers PHL
7. Adam Vinatieri IND
8. Nate Kaeding SDG
9. Robbie Gould CHI
10. Neil Rackers ARZ

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Pittsburgh Steelers PIT
2. Minnesota Vikings MIN
3. Tennessee Titans TEN
4. Baltimore Ravens BAL
5. Chicago Bears CHI
6. New York Giants NYG
7. New England Patriots NE
8. Philadelphia Eagles PHL
9. New York Jets NYJ
10. San Diego Chargers SDG

SLEEPERS
QUARTERBACK
Joe Flacco BAL - Flacco should continue to rise and his fantasy numbers will be good, which you do not expect from a Baltimore QB.

Matt Hasselbeck SEA - Hasselbeck has been around so long, can we call him a sleeper? T.J. Houshmandzadeh and John Carlson are prime targets for Hasselbeck.

RUNNING BACK
Darren Sproles SDG - Tomlinson should sit a little more and Sproles just needs a little more action to be startable in fantasy.

Fred Jackson BUF - Jackson will start for Marshawn Lynch during the first three games of the year while Lynch serves his suspension.

WIDE RECEIVER
Chris Henry CIN – Say what you will about his past, but Henry has had a great preseason and I like him more than I like Laveranues Coles in fantasy.

Bernard Berrian MIN - When the opposing defense stacks the box to stop Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre does air it out, Berrian will be waiting.

Nate Washington TEN – Washington has a ring from Pittsburgh and is still on the rise for a team that desperately needs a top receiver.

TIGHT END
Visanthe Shiancoe MIN - Shiancoe is another receiving sleeper for the Vikings. The overload on trying to stop the run will open up options short and deep. Shiancoe was good last year and he’ll be better this year.

Brent Celek PHL - The Eagles are only carrying 2 TE and Celek is a good safety valve for either Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick.

KICKER
Kris Brown HOU - If Schaub stays healthy, which is a big "if", the Texans will move the ball very, very well.

John Kasay CAR - The running game is so integral to Carolina and it’s getting better, but if they stall in the red zone, veteran Kasay can help put points on the board.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
San Diego Chargers SDG - With Shawne Merriman back and with Darren Sproles handling some of the return work, they’ll peek into the top 10.