The StatMan  

Less than 12 hours before the draft, and all is well...so far.  Here's my (over)analysis on the Islanders's first pick.

Islanders will draft first and, as we talked about in our show (#12), John Tavares has to be the pick, not only for this year, but for the future of the franchise.  Tavares will help an offense that has not been able to put the puck in the net on a regular basis since the early part of this decade and will immediately be the biggest impact goal scorer on the team since Zigmund Palffy.  With a year or two of solid production, he would be as big as Pierre Turgeon.  Three or four years would get him spoken on the same sentence as Pat LaFontaine as one of the best players on the Islanders since the Dynasty Era, which is now over 25 years ago.

How many other teams have a chance to pick a player that, in four years, can not only be a cornerstone of an up-and-coming franchise with a new arena slated to be built (or slated to be opened) but also one of the best players of the franchise in the last quarter-century?

Why not Hedman? Defensemen are not stars right away and very, very few defensemen in NHL history have been impact rookies.  The Islanders need someone who can be slotted right into the lineup and contribute immediately.

Why not Duchene? Duchene is the poster boy in this draft for doing the little things.  You could even say he is the "Josh Bailey" of this year's draft.  The Islanders drafted those intangibles and that playmaking ability last year when they drafted...Josh Bailey.

I am not going to predict first-round pick trades, but I will hint at where a possible deal might make sense.  I am simply picking the best player on the board based on an NHL team's most-pressing needs.  Let's see how many I get right on the nose.  I have no idea what the success rate is for draft picks, but I have a feeling that anything around 50% would be fantastic.  The most important ones are the first three, since they are the most likely picks not to move to another team and the order has been talked about and overanalyzed during the last couple of months.

1. N.Y. Islanders - C John Tavares/London (OHL)
2. Tampa Bay - D Victor Hedman/MoDo (SEL)
 - They need defense, but, if for some strange reason, the Islanders take Hedman #1, Tampa can do one of a couple of things: take Tavares and trade him to someone (Toronto would give up the farm for Tavares) or take Tavares and keep him (Vincent Lecavalier and his $8.5M salary would be up for grabs...Montreal anyone?).
3. Colorado - C Matt Duchene/Brampton (OHL)
4. Atlanta - C Evander Kane/Vancouver (WHL)
5. Los Angeles - C Brayden Schenn/Brandon (WHL)
6. Phoenix - D Jared Cowen/Spokane (WHL)
7. Toronto - D Simon Despres/Saint John (QMJHL)
 - Unless you haven't paid attention to the draft, GM Brian Burke wants to move up and/or try to finagle John Tavares from whoever picks him...good luck.
8. Dallas - D David Rundblad/Skelleftea (SEL)
9. Ottawa - LW Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson/Timra (SEL)
 - MPS would fall far if he went #9 and would provide excellent value here.
10. Edmonton - RW Zack Kassian/Peterborough (OHL)
 - Reaching on Kassian, but would fit their need to get gritty
11. Nashville - C Nazem Kadri/London (OHL)
12. Minnesota - RW Jordan Schroeder/University of Minnesota (WCHA)
 - Local boy...not saying this will happen, but it would be a nice story.
13. Buffalo - D Dmitri Kulikov/Drummondville (QMJHL)
14. Florida - C Peter Holland/Guelph (OHL)
15. Anaheim - D John Moore/Chicago (USHL)
 - Counts Scott Niedermayer as his biggest influence and role model.
16. Columbus - D Ryan Ellis/Windsor (OHL)
17. St. Louis - D Oliver Ekman-Larsson/Leksand (SEL)
18. Montreal - LW Carter Ashton/Lethbridge (WHL)
19. N.Y. Rangers - C Jeremy Morin/U.S. NTDP (U18)
 - Good shooter and can put puck in the net.  Would help playmakers Gomez and Drury...by the end of their contracts.
20. Calgary - F Scott Glennie/Brandon (WHL)
21. Philadelphia - F Jacob Josefson/Djurgarden (SEL)
 - If Ekman-Larsson or Moore is available, I think NYI will trade up to here.  Josefson is the best player on the board at this point.
22. Vancouver - D Calvin De Haan/Oshawa (OHL)
23. New Jersey - C Kyle Palmieri/U.S. NTDP (U18)
 - A little wishful thinking for another local kid (Montvale, NJ).
24. Washington - LW Chris Kreider/Andover Academy (USHS)
 - Boston would probably go for Kreider, but Washington has a need for a forward and Boston should not trade up just to get Kreider.
25. Boston - D Nick Leddy/Eden Prairie (USHS)
 - Leddy is the best player on the board at this point, but might go for gritty Drew Shore instead.
26. N.Y. Islanders (from San Jose) - D Tim Erixon/Skelleftea (SEL)
 - Need a defenseman here after taking Taveras and would probably prefer Ekman-Larsson or Moore.
27. Carolina - D Stefan Elliott/Saskatoon (WHL)
28. Chicago - RW Drew Shore/U.S. NTDP (U18)
29. Detroit - C Marcus Johansson/Farjestad (SEL)
30. Pittsburgh - RW Landon Ferraro/Red Deer (WHL)
 - Son of Chicken Parm: would be a great fit for the Islanders at 31, but I do not think he will fall into the second round.
31. N.Y. Islanders - C Louis Leblanc/Omaha (USHL)
 - First pick of second day and after a night of celebrating the John Tavares pick, they go for a forward who has two-way talent.  Might go for Jordan Caron instead, who plays in the Q, plays a little stronger, stands 2 inches taller, and weighs 18 pounds more.
37. N.Y. Islanders - D Dylan Olsen/Camrose (Jr. A) or C Ryan O'Reilly/Erie (OHL)
 - The flow of the draft will obviously affect the pick here and, if the Isles move up significantly from 26, this pick may be a casualty.  Both guys have snarl and, outside of scoring, the Islanders need a lot more snarl.  O'Reilly was also the captain of Canada's World Under-18 championship team.
56. N.Y. Islanders - if not traded, another D (Brayden McNabb) or possibly a G (Robin Lehner)
 - I would bet this pick will be dealt, but, if no picks are traded by the Islanders, a haul of two forwards (Taveras and a gritty forward in Leblanc/Caron/O'Reilly) and two defensemen (Erixon/Moore/Ekman-Larsson/Olsen/McNabb) would be reason for celebration.

Be sure to listen this Sunday night (Show #13: 6/28, 8pm ET) for a breakdown of the NHL Draft and our Hockey Christmas wishlists.