The StatMan  

Less than 12 hours before the draft, and all is well...so far.  Here's my (over)analysis on the Islanders's first pick.

Islanders will draft first and, as we talked about in our show (#12), John Tavares has to be the pick, not only for this year, but for the future of the franchise.  Tavares will help an offense that has not been able to put the puck in the net on a regular basis since the early part of this decade and will immediately be the biggest impact goal scorer on the team since Zigmund Palffy.  With a year or two of solid production, he would be as big as Pierre Turgeon.  Three or four years would get him spoken on the same sentence as Pat LaFontaine as one of the best players on the Islanders since the Dynasty Era, which is now over 25 years ago.

How many other teams have a chance to pick a player that, in four years, can not only be a cornerstone of an up-and-coming franchise with a new arena slated to be built (or slated to be opened) but also one of the best players of the franchise in the last quarter-century?

Why not Hedman? Defensemen are not stars right away and very, very few defensemen in NHL history have been impact rookies.  The Islanders need someone who can be slotted right into the lineup and contribute immediately.

Why not Duchene? Duchene is the poster boy in this draft for doing the little things.  You could even say he is the "Josh Bailey" of this year's draft.  The Islanders drafted those intangibles and that playmaking ability last year when they drafted...Josh Bailey.

I am not going to predict first-round pick trades, but I will hint at where a possible deal might make sense.  I am simply picking the best player on the board based on an NHL team's most-pressing needs.  Let's see how many I get right on the nose.  I have no idea what the success rate is for draft picks, but I have a feeling that anything around 50% would be fantastic.  The most important ones are the first three, since they are the most likely picks not to move to another team and the order has been talked about and overanalyzed during the last couple of months.

1. N.Y. Islanders - C John Tavares/London (OHL)
2. Tampa Bay - D Victor Hedman/MoDo (SEL)
 - They need defense, but, if for some strange reason, the Islanders take Hedman #1, Tampa can do one of a couple of things: take Tavares and trade him to someone (Toronto would give up the farm for Tavares) or take Tavares and keep him (Vincent Lecavalier and his $8.5M salary would be up for grabs...Montreal anyone?).
3. Colorado - C Matt Duchene/Brampton (OHL)
4. Atlanta - C Evander Kane/Vancouver (WHL)
5. Los Angeles - C Brayden Schenn/Brandon (WHL)
6. Phoenix - D Jared Cowen/Spokane (WHL)
7. Toronto - D Simon Despres/Saint John (QMJHL)
 - Unless you haven't paid attention to the draft, GM Brian Burke wants to move up and/or try to finagle John Tavares from whoever picks him...good luck.
8. Dallas - D David Rundblad/Skelleftea (SEL)
9. Ottawa - LW Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson/Timra (SEL)
 - MPS would fall far if he went #9 and would provide excellent value here.
10. Edmonton - RW Zack Kassian/Peterborough (OHL)
 - Reaching on Kassian, but would fit their need to get gritty
11. Nashville - C Nazem Kadri/London (OHL)
12. Minnesota - RW Jordan Schroeder/University of Minnesota (WCHA)
 - Local boy...not saying this will happen, but it would be a nice story.
13. Buffalo - D Dmitri Kulikov/Drummondville (QMJHL)
14. Florida - C Peter Holland/Guelph (OHL)
15. Anaheim - D John Moore/Chicago (USHL)
 - Counts Scott Niedermayer as his biggest influence and role model.
16. Columbus - D Ryan Ellis/Windsor (OHL)
17. St. Louis - D Oliver Ekman-Larsson/Leksand (SEL)
18. Montreal - LW Carter Ashton/Lethbridge (WHL)
19. N.Y. Rangers - C Jeremy Morin/U.S. NTDP (U18)
 - Good shooter and can put puck in the net.  Would help playmakers Gomez and Drury...by the end of their contracts.
20. Calgary - F Scott Glennie/Brandon (WHL)
21. Philadelphia - F Jacob Josefson/Djurgarden (SEL)
 - If Ekman-Larsson or Moore is available, I think NYI will trade up to here.  Josefson is the best player on the board at this point.
22. Vancouver - D Calvin De Haan/Oshawa (OHL)
23. New Jersey - C Kyle Palmieri/U.S. NTDP (U18)
 - A little wishful thinking for another local kid (Montvale, NJ).
24. Washington - LW Chris Kreider/Andover Academy (USHS)
 - Boston would probably go for Kreider, but Washington has a need for a forward and Boston should not trade up just to get Kreider.
25. Boston - D Nick Leddy/Eden Prairie (USHS)
 - Leddy is the best player on the board at this point, but might go for gritty Drew Shore instead.
26. N.Y. Islanders (from San Jose) - D Tim Erixon/Skelleftea (SEL)
 - Need a defenseman here after taking Taveras and would probably prefer Ekman-Larsson or Moore.
27. Carolina - D Stefan Elliott/Saskatoon (WHL)
28. Chicago - RW Drew Shore/U.S. NTDP (U18)
29. Detroit - C Marcus Johansson/Farjestad (SEL)
30. Pittsburgh - RW Landon Ferraro/Red Deer (WHL)
 - Son of Chicken Parm: would be a great fit for the Islanders at 31, but I do not think he will fall into the second round.
31. N.Y. Islanders - C Louis Leblanc/Omaha (USHL)
 - First pick of second day and after a night of celebrating the John Tavares pick, they go for a forward who has two-way talent.  Might go for Jordan Caron instead, who plays in the Q, plays a little stronger, stands 2 inches taller, and weighs 18 pounds more.
37. N.Y. Islanders - D Dylan Olsen/Camrose (Jr. A) or C Ryan O'Reilly/Erie (OHL)
 - The flow of the draft will obviously affect the pick here and, if the Isles move up significantly from 26, this pick may be a casualty.  Both guys have snarl and, outside of scoring, the Islanders need a lot more snarl.  O'Reilly was also the captain of Canada's World Under-18 championship team.
56. N.Y. Islanders - if not traded, another D (Brayden McNabb) or possibly a G (Robin Lehner)
 - I would bet this pick will be dealt, but, if no picks are traded by the Islanders, a haul of two forwards (Taveras and a gritty forward in Leblanc/Caron/O'Reilly) and two defensemen (Erixon/Moore/Ekman-Larsson/Olsen/McNabb) would be reason for celebration.

Be sure to listen this Sunday night (Show #13: 6/28, 8pm ET) for a breakdown of the NHL Draft and our Hockey Christmas wishlists.

The NHL Awards are tonight in Las Vegas, as the NHL tries to glitz up the postseason proceedings.  I think it is a great idea because this week is the soft spot between the end of a rollicking Final and the NHL Draft and the start of Free Agency.  Any chance to talk hockey is great, so long as you are not talking about assaults on ice.

The NHL is starting to get it.  They had their best ratings since 1973 in a Stanley Cup Final series (Montreal-Chicago) and their online presence, NHL.com, is second only to baseball.  June is suddenly becoming an extension of the hockey season until "Hockey Christmas" (a.k.a. the start of NHL Free Agency) on July 1st.

Heather has won the Stanley Cup predictions, but she has taken the offer to go double-or-nothing on picking the NHL Award winners.

Here they are:
Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP): Pavel Datsyuk DET, Evgeni Malkin PIT, Alexander Ovechkin WSH
Georges Vezina Trophy (Best Goaltender): Niklas Backstrom MIN, Steve Mason CLB, Tim Thomas BOS
James Norris Trophy (Best Defenseman): Zdeno Chara BOS, Mike Green WSH, Nicklas Lidstrom DET
Calder Memorial Trophy (Best Rookie): Steve Mason CLB, Bobby Ryan ANA, Kris Versteeg CHI
Lady Byng Memorial Trophy (Sportsmanship): Pavel Datsyuk DET, Zach Parise NJD, Martin St. Louis TBY
Frank J. Selke Trophy (Best Defensive Forward): Pavel Datsyuk DET, Ryan Kesler VAN, Mike Richards PHL
Jack Adams Award (Best Coach): Claude Julien BOS, Todd McLellan SJS, Andy Murray STL
Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy (Perserverance): Chris Chelios DET, Steve Sullivan NSH, Richard Zednik FLA
Lester B. Pearson Trophy (NHLPA MVP): Pavel Datsyuk DET, Evgeni Malkin PIT, Alexander Ovechkin WSH
NHL Foundation Award (contributions to community): Dustin Brown LAK, Alex Kovalev MTL, Rick Nash CLB

StatMan's Predictions:
Hart: Ovechkin
Vezina: Thomas
Norris: Green
Calder: Mason
Byng: Datsyuk
Selke: Richards
Adams: Julien
Masterton: Zednik
Pearson: Ovechkin
NHL Foundation: Kovalev

Heather's Predictions:
Hart: Ovechkin
Vezina: Thomas (Bruin)
Norris: Chara (Bruin)
Calder: Mason
Byng: St. Louis
Selke: Datsyuk
Adams: Julien (Bruin)
Masterton: Zednik
Pearson: Malkin
NHL Foundation: Brown

Well, I think we know who Heather roots for.  Honestly, though, if an Islander would be a finalist in any award, I would probably pick the home team guy, too.

The automatic award winners this season are:
Art Ross Scoring Trophy (Scoring): Malkin (113 points - 35-78-113)
Williams Jennings Trophy (Lowest GAA): Tim Thomas/Manny Fernandez (Boston - 196 GA)
Conn Smythe Trophy (Playoff MVP): Malkin (36 points - 14-22-36)
Maurice Richard Trophy (Most Goals): Ovechkin (56 goals)

Good luck to all.  Feel free to comment with your own picks.  Click here to see the write-ups on the awards and finalists and be sure to tune in to Versus tonight (Thursday 6/18) at 7:30pm ET.  Also, make sure you listen to our show (#12) this Saturday night (6/20) at 11pm ET for the results and our NHL Draft Preview.

What did we learn from this Stanley Cup postseason on Sports With The StatMan?  Essentially, we learned that Heather believes in the Chicago Blackhawks.  We learned more, but that was the big one.  In one of the most exciting playoff seasons in my 16 years of intently watching the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we previewed and broke down just about every game of the playoffs and you can listen for yourself in our past episodes (No. 2-11). 

Hockey contributor Heather Yunger and I made picks along the way, which were detailed in the blog and on the show. 

Heather and I both hit the jackpot in figuring the Penguins to win the whole shooting match.  I had the Pens in 7, improbable as it was to pick the road team in a Game 7, especially against the almost-dynastic Red Wings at the Joe.  I did not even realize that road teams in a Stanley Cup Final Game 7 were 2-12 going into that game and the two steely goalies in those two wins were Frank McCool (1945 Maple Leafs) and the inimitable Ken Dryden (1971 Canadiens).  Add the enigmatic Marc-Andre Fleury to the list.

Heather had more faith in the Penguins and had them winning at the Igloo in six games.

So, I got the last laugh by picking the correct amount of games.  Or, did I?  Here is how we did:

CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS
#1E Boston vs. #8E Montreal: StatMan - BOS/6; Heather - BOS; Result: BOS/4
#2E Washington vs. #7E N.Y. Rangers: StatMan - WSH/7; Heather - WSH; Result: WSH/7
#3E New Jersey vs. #6E Carolina - StatMan - CAR/6; Heather - CAR; Result: CAR/7
#4E Pittsburgh vs. #5E Philadelphia - StatMan - PIT/5; Heather - PIT; Result: PIT/6
#1W San Jose vs. #8W Anaheim - StatMan - SJS/7; Heather - SJS; Result: ANA/6
#2W Detroit vs. #7W Columbus - StatMan - DET/5; Heather - DET; Result: DET/4
#3W Vancouver vs. #6W St. Louis - StatMan - VAN/5; Heather - VAN; Result: VAN/4
#4W Chicago vs. #5W Calgary - StatMan - CGY/6; Heather - CHI; Result: CHI/6
StatMan: 6-2 (1 was correct on winner and games (WSH))
Heather: 7-1 (Heather matched me on every pick, but disagreed with CGY-CHI)

CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
#1E Boston vs. #6E Carolina - StatMan - BOS/6; Heather - BOS/6; Result: CAR/7
#2E Washington vs. #4E Pittsburgh - StatMan - WSH/7; Heather - PIT/7; Result: PIT/7
#2W Detroit vs. #8W Anaheim - StatMan - DET/5; Heather - DET/6; Result: DET/7
#3W Vancouver vs. #4W Chicago - StatMan - VAN/7; Heather - CHI/7; Result: CHI/6
StatMan: 1-3 (just wrong all over the place and the only time I was right, I thought Detroit

would have a much easier time against the Ducks)
Heather: 3-1 (1 was correct on winner and games (PIT))

CONFERENCE FINALS
#4E Pittsburgh vs. #6E Carolina - StatMan - PIT/6; Heather - PIT/6; Result: PIT/4
#2W Detroit vs. #4W Chicago - StatMan - DET/6; Heather - CHI/7; Result: DET/5
StatMan: 2-0 (big rebound)
Heather: 1-1 (going with your heart does not win Championships)

STANLEY CUP FINALS
#2W Detroit vs. #4E Pittsburgh - StatMan - PIT/7; Heather - PIT/6; Result: PIT/7
StatMan: 1-0 (on the mark on winner and games)
Heather: 1-0 (she must feel like having a full house and losing the hand)

Overall: Heather: 12-3 (1 right on the number); StatMan: 10-5 (2 right on the number)

Well, it looks like Heather laughed last and laughed best.  We'll see how she does picking the NHL Award winners.  I will be posting that later today.

On last week's show (6/14/09), I neglected to share a couple of thoughts about the incidents and accidents during the Mets-Yankees series at Yankee Stadium this past weekend:

1. Everyone knows about the Alex Rodriguez pop-up-turned-two-run-error by Luis Castillo in the bottom of the 9th on Friday night that allowed the Yankees to walk off with a 9-8 victory.  Everyone knows what they were doing when they saw the play.  I was in my living room and I was inconsolable for hours, not being able to speak for about 45 minutes.  My hands were glued to the temples of my forehead.  But, in the aftermath, and after the requisite head-shaking on either side, came a new appreciation for Luis Castillo. 

Castillo could have taken the LeBron James way out and high-tailed it out of the clubhouse to avoid the media.  He could have allowed his teammates to answer for him.  He could have made the situation a whole heckuva lot worse.  Castillo did not.  He stood there to address his mistake, answering questions in a soft, remorseful tone that could not help but soften the media's blow in Saturday's papers.  After apparently not getting a good night's sleep on Friday night, Castillo made himself available to reporters again on Saturday before the 4pm matinee on national television.

Castillo played second base and batted leadoff, going 2-for-5, and the Mets won 6-2.

I think the two events are related.  If Castillo bucked the media, the Mets would have had some ticked-off players in the clubhouse and the situation would have gotten worse in the cauldron of Yankee Stadium and the New York media would have stirred the pot.  By facing the music, Castillo diffused a bomb that even the Joe Torre S.W.A.T. team would have been proud of.  If Castillo bucked the media, I think the Mets would have been swept and the pressure would have mounted as the Mets would have been five games back after the weekend.  Instead, they salvaged a game in the series, possibly finding a starting pitcher in Fernando Nieve to contribute to the cause, and the Mets came away with some dignity intact.

Read George Vecsey's "Sports of The Times" in Sunday's New York Times for the full story.

2. The Francisco Rodriguez-Brian Bruney dust-up was a late-developing story and I did not mention it during our show.  But, it is worthy of a mention.  Brian Bruney was quoted as saying that the Met meltdown on Friday night "could not have happened to a better guy". 

Chamberlain is the king of fist pumps, the pride of the prideful.  Yes, Rodriguez beats his chest after a save with some more vigor than most players when they quietly point to the sky after touching home plate on a homer.  But, Chamberlain does it more often and I see that as more of a show-up type of move.

In a Mets team lacking fire, in the few times they show some personality, it makes news.  File this with the "I'm a man" proclamation from Johan Santana last Tuesday night against the Phillies.  There is nothing wrong with playing the game with spirit, fire, chutzpah, whatever you want to call it.  It is not right to show up an opposing player, a manager, a teammate, or the fans.  But, don't you think that if the Mets everyday players, who have to be a baseball team's leaders, showed more fire, the pitchers wouldn't have to?

Read Marty Noble's account of the K-Rod/Bruney incident.