This Week in Economics  

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JANUARY 2010 The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-20,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while temporary help services and retail trade added jobs. Household Survey Data In January, the number of unemployed persons decreased to 14.8 million, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent. (See table A-1.) In January, unemployment rates for most major worker groups--adult men (10.0 percent), teenagers (26.4 percent), blacks (16.5 percent), and Hispanics (12.6 percent)--showed little change. The jobless rate for adult women fell to 7.9 percent, and the rate for whites declined to 8.7 percent. The jobless rate for Asians was 8.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) This release includes new household survey tables with information about employment and unemployment of veterans, persons with a disability, and the foreign born. In January, the unemployment rate of veterans from Gulf War era II (September 2001 to the present) was 12.6 percent, compared with 10.4 percent for nonveterans. Persons with a disability had a higher jobless rate than persons with no disability--15.2 versus 10.4 percent. In addition, the labor force participation rate of persons with a disability was 21.8 percent, compared with 70.1 percent for those without a disability. The unemployment rate for the foreign born was 11.8 percent, and the rate for the native born was 10.3 percent. (The data in these new tables are not seasonally adjusted.) (See tables A-5, A-6, and A-7.) ---------------------------------------------------------------- | | | Changes to The Employment Situation Text, Tables, and Data | | | | Several changes to The Employment Situation news release text | | and tables are being introduced with this release. In addi- | | tion, establishment survey data have been revised as a result | | of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of sea- | | sonal adjustment factors. Also, household survey data for Jan-| | uary 2010 reflect updated population estimates. See the notes | | at the end of the text for more information about all of | | these changes. | | | ---------------------------------------------------------------- In January, the number of persons unemployed due to job loss decreased by 378,000 to 9.3 million. Nearly all of this decline occurred among permanent job losers. (See table A-11.) The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) continued to trend up in January, reaching 6.3 million. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of long-term unemployed has risen by 5.0 million. (See table A-12.) In January, the civilian labor force participation rate was little changed at 64.7 percent. The employment-population ratio rose from 58.2 to 58.4 percent. (See table A-1.) The number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell from 9.2 to 8.3 million in January. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.) About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in January, an increase of 409,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.) Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in January, up from 734,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million people marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsi- bilities. Establishment Survey Data Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in January (-20,000). Job losses continued in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while employment increased in temporary help services and retail trade. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 8.4 million. Over the last 3 months, however, employment has shown little net change. (See table B-1.) Construction employment declined by 75,000 in January, with nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-48,000) accounting for the majority of the de- cline. Since December 2007, employment in construction has fallen by 1.9 million. In January, transportation and warehousing employment fell by 19,000, due to a large job loss among couriers and messengers (-23,000). Employment in manufacturing was little changed in January (11,000). After expe- riencing steep job losses earlier in the recession, employment declines moderated considerably in the second half of 2009. In January, job gains in motor vehicles and parts (23,000) and plastics and rubber products (6,000) offset small job losses elsewhere in the industry. In January, temporary help services added 52,000 jobs. Since reaching a low point in September 2009, temporary help services employment has risen by 247,000. Retail trade employment rose by 42,000 in January, after showing little change in the prior 2 months. Job gains occurred in January among food stores (14,000), clothing stores (13,000), and general merchandise retailers (10,000). Health care employment continued to trend up in January. Ambulatory health care services added 15,000 jobs over the month. In January, the federal government added 33,000 jobs, including 9,000 tempo- rary positions for Census 2010. Employment in state and local governments, excluding education, continued to trend down. This release includes a new establishment survey table with information about women employees. In January, women made up 49.9 percent of total nonfarm pay- roll employment, compared with 48.8 percent when the recession began in December 2007. (See table B-5.) Also new in this release are data on hours and earnings for all employees in the private sector. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was up by 0.1 hour to 33.9 hours in January. The manufacturing work- week for all employees rose by 0.3 hour to 39.9 hours, and factory overtime increased by 0.1 hour over the month. Since June, the manufacturing workweek has increased by 1.2 hours. In January, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.1 hour to 33.3 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.) In January, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm pay- rolls increased by 4 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $22.45. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.0 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $18.89. (See tables B-3 and B-8.) The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from 4,000 to 64,000, and the change for December was revised from -85,000 to -150,000. Monthly revisions result from additional sample reports and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to these revisions. Revisions to Establishment Survey Data In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data have been revised to reflect comprehensive universe counts of payroll jobs, or benchmarks. These counts are derived principally from unemployment insurance tax records for March 2009. As a result of the benchmark process, all data series were subject to revision from April 2008 forward, the time period since the last benchmark was established. In addition, with this release, the seasonally adjusted establishment survey data from January 2005 forward were subject to revision due to the introduction of updated seasonal adjustment factors. Table A presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjust- ed basis for January through December 2009. The revised data for April 2009 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark level, as well as updated net business birth/death model adjustments and new seasonal adjustment factors. The November and December 2009 revisions also reflect the routine incorporation of additional sample receipts into the November final and December second preliminary estimates. The total nonfarm employment level for March 2009 was revised down- ward by 902,000 (930,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis), or 0.7 percent. The previously published level for December 2009 was revised downward 1,390,000 (1,363,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis). An article that discusses the benchmark and post-benchmark revisions, as well as all revised historical Current Employment Statistics (CES) data, can be accessed through the CES homepage at www.bls.gov/ces/. Information on the revisions released today also may be obtained by calling (202) 691-6555. Table A. Revisions in total nonfarm employment, January-December 2009, seasonally adjusted (In thousands) _______________________________________________________________________ | | | Level | Over-the-month change |---------------------|--------------------------------- Year and month| As | | As | | |previously| As |previously| As | Difference |published | revised |published | revised | _______________|__________|__________|__________|__________|___________ | | | | | 2009 | | | | | January........| 134,333 | 133,549 | -741 | -779 | -38 February.......| 133,652 | 132,823 | -681 | -726 | -45 March..........| 133,000 | 132,070 | -652 | -753 | -101 April..........| 132,481 | 131,488 | -519 | -582 | -63 May............| 132,178 | 131,141 | -303 | -347 | -44 June...........| 131,715 | 130,637 | -463 | -504 | -41 July...........| 131,411 | 130,293 | -304 | -344 | -40 August.........| 131,257 | 130,082 | -154 | -211 | -57 September......| 131,118 | 129,857 | -139 | -225 | -86 October........| 130,991 | 129,633 | -127 | -224 | -97 November.......| 130,995 | 129,697 | 4 | 64 | 60 December (p)...| 130,910 | 129,547 | -85 | -150 | -65 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- p = preliminary. Adjustments to Population Estimates for the Household Survey Effective with data for January 2010, updated population estimates have been used in the household survey. Population estimates for the household survey are developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census Bureau updates the estimates to reflect new information and assumptions about the growth of the population during the decade. The change in population reflected in the new estimates results primarily from adjustments for net international migra- tion, updated vital statistics and other information, and some methodological changes in the estimation process. In accordance with usual practice, BLS will not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2009 or earlier months. To show the impact of the population adjustment, however, differences in selected December 2009 labor force series based on the old and new population estimates are shown in table B. The adjustment decreased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 258,000, the civilian labor force by 249,000, and employment by 243,000; the new population estimates had a negligible impact on unemployment rates and other percentage estimates. Data users are cautioned that these annual population adjustments affect the comparability of household data series over time. Estimates of large levels, such as total labor force and employment, are impacted most. Table C shows the effect of the introduction of new population estimates on the changes in selected labor force measures between December 2009 and January 2010. More detailed information on the population adjustments and their effect on national labor force estimates are available at www.bls.gov/cps/cps10adj.pdf.