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  Date / Time: 8/10/2009 7:37 PM UTC

  China missiles shift balance in Strait
  

  China's build-up of increasingly advanced short-range missiles near the Taiwan Strait “calls into question Washington’s ability to credibly serve as guarantor of Taiwan’s security in the future”, according to a new report by a global policy think-tank.

  The report, released last week by the Rand Corporation, said China was increasing both the number and quality of its short-range ballistic missiles, around a thousand of which are deployed near the Taiwan Strait. The growing sophistication and accuracy of these missiles mean that by 2013, China would need to launch just 240 missiles to temporarily disable Taiwan's entire air force.

  This, combined with the fact that Taiwan is much closer to China than the nearest US bases in Okinawa, Japan, means that the air war for Taiwan could “essentially be over before much of [the Taiwan and US] air forces have even fired a shot,” the report said. It added, however, that any Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan with ground troops could still likely be repelled by the Taiwanese army.

  Prospects of war between China and Taiwan, the democratically ruled island Beijing regards as an integral part of its territory, have diminished greatly in the past year since the new Taiwan president, Ma Ying-jeou, took office last year on promises to mend fences with China.

  But the shifting military balance in Taiwan highlights the broader issues of the diminishing ability of the US to control the skies against China’s air force in the region, should need the arise. Taiwan can therefore “be seen as a possible prelude to a broader challenge to the United States in East Asia that might emerge in the next 10–20 years”, the report says.

  The current report paints a more pessimistic picture of US military influence in the Strait than Rand's previous study on the subject nine years ago, which had concluded that Taiwan “stands a relatively good chance of denying Beijing the air and sea superiority needed to transport a significant number of ground troops safely across the Strait”.

  George Tsai, a cross-Strait expert in Taiwan, said it had long been clear that “Taiwan is indefensible in the long run . . . even if the US provides us with its full military support”. This did not mean, however, that US involvement in the region should be lessened. “Now the [cross-Strait] question has become a political one of how to make sure the two sides do not go to war,” he said.

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  • WILL CHINA INVASION
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