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Denzel Musumba

Denzel Musumba


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Even before President Kibaki appends his signature to the new Constitution, political party strategists are already mapping out their 2012 strategies. The parties are chewing the referendum results to gauge their strength and that of their probable presidential flag bearers, regional point men, and rivals in the said counties. Ideally, the latest figures replace those of the 2007 poll and are being used to map out 2012 vote hunt and alliance building. The high threshold rule of 50+1 of all votes cast for successful presidential candidates makes it imperative for candidates to reach out widely, and be meticulous in identifying running mates. A report, An Analysis of the 2010 Referendum Results, seen by The Standard on Sunday show President Kibaki has maintained support in 84 of 88 constituencies that voted for him in 2007. Only Siakago, Ntonyiri, Igembe and Tharaka voted ‘No’ in the referendum. On his part, Prime Minister Raila Odinga lost 33 of the original 105 constituencies that voted for him in 2007. Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka lost five of 17 constituencies that voted for him in 2007. While the ‘Greens’ were largely predicted to win due to the combined force of Government, civil society, and general clamour for radical reforms by majority Kenyans, political parties have not shied away from using the results to claim credit for the results, regardless of why people voted the way they did. The results have also thrust regional point men into the limelight, either for courting as potential future alliance partners in exchange for vote blocs or for isolation on account of poor voter mobilisation. The results are also being used as an indicator of regional and national popularity among the various presidential candidates. Remained loyal Second, the analysis shows Kibaki strongholds in 2007 remained loyal, posting 3.2 million votes (53 per cent) out of the six-plus million cast for ‘Yes’.