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Denzel Musumba

Denzel Musumba


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Support for Proposed Constitution has shrunk, but those abandoning ‘Yes’ train are not joining ‘No’ team, says a team that reviews the Coalition Government and reports to Dr Kofi Annan. The team that also found out that about 22 per cent of voters is undecided and another 22 per cent will vote ‘No’. In May the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation Monitoring Project found out 58 per cent of Kenyans would vote ‘Yes’ in the August 4 referendum. But a draft of the latest report by the Annan team seen by The Standard, and circulated to members of the Serena Team shows that the numbers of enthusiastic ‘Green’ supporters have dropped to 49 per cent. In what should send alarm bells ringing inside the ‘Yes’ camp, this trend, if not reversed through rigorous campaigns, could drop further, with the referendum just 27 days away. The worst nightmare for the ‘Yes’ team, and those keen to see Kenya get a new constitution would be if those jumping off the ‘Yes’ train were to join the ‘No’, vote at the referendum, and deny the ‘Greens’ the requisite 50-plus-one per cent set out by the Constitution of Kenya Review Act to validate the draft. So far, however, the ‘No’ side is yet to benefit from the undecided voters, the report notes. Still, by staying on the sidelines, they could dilute a ‘Yes’ win, and deny it the international threshold of 40 per cent participation of registered voters in a referendum. That means even if one side wins, but the turnout is less than 40 per cent, it may reflect badly on Kenya, even if that side was to win by 100 per cent margin. The Kenyan law, however, requires that at least half of the registered voters must vote ‘Yes’ for the Proposed Constitution to be promulgated. This is how the Annan team put it: "It is significant that this decline in the number of those supporting the Proposed Constitution has not led to a significant increase in the number of people rejecting it.