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The Facebook forecast model, in North Carolina, incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, leads State House Speaker Thom Tillis, the leading Republican contender, by 52.7 to 47.3. In the open Michigan Senate race, Democratic Rep. Gary Peters leads the announced Republican candidate, former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, 55.6 to 44.4. And, assuming he survives a primary challenge, Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell holds a 53.9 to 46.1 lead over Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Democratic secretary of state. In Alaska, Democratic Sen. Mark Begich is in a dead heat whether he faces Joe Miller, the 2010 Republican Senate nominee, or Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell.Politico Matthew MacWilliams and Edward Erikson
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